Haro Deportivo 2–0 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Haro Deportivo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Sociedad II

Javi Duro 39'

Mikel Bueno 21'

10/20/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio Municipal El Mazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Haro Deportivo36%

×Draw28%

Real Sociedad II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haro DeportivoExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

Haro Deportivo

1.15

Real Sociedad II

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

1.12

creates per match

1.26

1.04

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Haro Deportivo

1.12

Real Sociedad II

1.26

allows per match

Haro Deportivo

1.04

Real Sociedad II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw

64%

Haro Deportivo or Real Sociedad II

72%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

64%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+

15%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals

68%

Haro Deportivo 2+ goals

32%

Haro Deportivo 3+ goals

11%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

68%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

32%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)

50%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.12 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Real Sociedad II attack 1.26 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more

36%

level

28%

Real Sociedad II scores more

36%

Haro Deportivo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Jon Pacheco← Aritz Aranbarri

21'

Mikel Bueno

39'

Javi Duro

46'

Julen Lobete← Garrido

50'

N. Djouahra← Ekaitz Jiménez

66'

Mario Urrecho← Joseba García

77'

Esteve Monterde← F. Ballardo

88'

Gulín← Álex Valiño

Haro

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Aitor Calle

66'▲Mario Urrecho←▼Joseba García

77'▲Esteve Monterde←▼F. Ballardo

88'▲Gulín←▼Álex Valiño

Haro Deportivo substitutes

UrrechoMonterdeGulínDiengElíasIbáñezLoza

Manager: Xabi Alonso

13'▲Jon Pacheco←▼Aritz Aranbarri

46'▲Julen Lobete←▼Garrido

50'▲N. Djouahra←▼Ekaitz Jiménez

Real Sociedad II substitutes

PachecoLobeteDjouahraGorostidiGabilondoThiorZeberio