Real Sociedad II 4–1 Gimnástica Segoviana

Real Sociedad II

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gimnástica Segoviana

Mikel Goti 79' (pen)

Iñaki Rupérez 69'

Arkaitz Mariezkurrena 67'

Mikel Rodríguez 14'

Chupo Yubero 20'

11/23/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Sociedad II58%

×Draw22%

Gimnástica Segoviana20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchGimnástica Segoviana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.02

Real Sociedad II

1.90

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.02

Real Sociedad II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.55

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.55

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.00

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.03

Gimnástica Segoviana

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

80%

Real Sociedad II or Gimnástica Segoviana

78%

Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana

42%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

34%

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

85%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

56%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

29%

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

64%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

27%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

74%

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.55 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.90

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.00 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

58%

level

22%

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

20%

Real Sociedad II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

14'

20'

28'

28'

46'

Berlanga← Javi Borrego

60'

Hugo Díaz← Diego Gómez

64'

Manex Gibelalde← Mikel Rodríguez

65'

Dani Díaz← A. Lebarbier

67'

Arkaitz Mariezkurrena

69'

Iñaki Rupérez

70'

Fernán Ferreiroa← Manu Olmedilla

70'

Ignacio Tellechea← Pedro Astray

75'

Alex Marchal← J. Ochieng

76'

Eder García← Arkaitz Mariezkurrena

77'

F. Llorente

79'

Luken Beitia← Iker Ropero

79'

Mikel GotiPenalty

84'

F. Ferreiroa

Real

Gimnástica

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mariezkur

Manager: Sergio Francisco

64'▲Manex Gibelalde←▼Mikel Rodríguez

65'▲Dani Díaz←▼A. Lebarbier

75'▲Alex Marchal←▼J. Ochieng

76'▲Eder García←▼Arkaitz Mariezkurrena

79'▲Luken Beitia←▼Iker Ropero

Real Sociedad II substitutes

GibelaldeDíazMarchalGarcíaBeitiaRamírezAranaCarreraBaldaMerino

Manager: Ramsés

46'▲Berlanga←▼Javi Borrego

60'▲Hugo Díaz←▼Diego Gómez

70'▲Fernán Ferreiroa←▼Manu Olmedilla

70'▲Ignacio Tellechea←▼Pedro Astray

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

BerlangaDíazFerreiroaTellecheaPalmeroMarcosChangyiIbañes