Gimnástica Segoviana 0–0 Real Sociedad II

Gimnástica Segoviana

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad II

5/2/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana34%

×Draw29%

Real Sociedad II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnástica SegovianaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.15

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.09

Real Sociedad II

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.26

creates per match

0.92

1.37

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.26

Real Sociedad II

0.92

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana

1.37

Real Sociedad II

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw

63%

Gimnástica Segoviana or Real Sociedad II

71%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

66%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+

14%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals

66%

Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals

30%

Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals

10%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

68%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

32%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)

48%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.26 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

Real Sociedad II attack 0.92 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more

34%

level

29%

Real Sociedad II scores more

37%

Real Sociedad II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Álex Maroto← Berlanga

58'

A. Pascual

63'

Eder García← Lander Astiazarán

67'

Javi Borrego← Marcel Céspedes

74'

Darío Ramírez← Alex Marchal

74'

Gorka Carrera← Ekain Orobengoa

79'

I. Ruperez

81'

Hugo Díaz← Manu Olmedilla

85'

Sydney Osazuwa← Mikel Rodríguez

Gimnástica

Real

1

15

3

24

22

10

8

▼

Rodríguez

40

▼

Astiazará

28

Carbonell

9

▼

Orobengoa

19

▼

44

17

5

3

18

▼

Céspedes

14

Llorente

6

▼

Olmedilla

23

Ferreiroa

9

Gómez

7

▼

Berlanga

19

Farrell

Manager: Ramsés

30'▲Álex Maroto←▼Berlanga

67'▲Javi Borrego←▼Marcel Céspedes

81'▲Hugo Díaz←▼Manu Olmedilla

Gimnástica Segoviana substitutes

32Maroto10Borrego8Díaz4López33Postigo1Carmona28Felipe20Tellechea22Mata11Astray26Marcos

Manager: Sergio Francisco

63'▲Eder García←▼Lander Astiazarán

74'▲Darío Ramírez←▼Alex Marchal

74'▲Gorka Carrera←▼Ekain Orobengoa

85'▲Sydney Osazuwa←▼Mikel Rodríguez

Real Sociedad II substitutes

18García17Ramírez35Carrera29Osazuwa5Astigarraga32Zango16Gibelalde38Ropero21Merino6Lebarbier