Real Sociedad II 1–1 Gimnastic: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gimnastic

Mikel Goti 68'

David Concha 74'

1/18/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Sociedad II44%

×Draw28%

Gimnastic28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchGimnastic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.96

Real Sociedad II

1.30

Gimnastic

0.96

Real Sociedad II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.55

creates per match

0.89

1.03

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.55

Gimnastic

0.89

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.03

Gimnastic

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Gimnastic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

72%

Real Sociedad II or Gimnastic

72%

Draw or Gimnastic

56%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

20%

Gimnastic wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

73%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

37%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

14%

Gimnastic 1+ goals

62%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

25%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

62%

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.55 + Gimnastic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.30

Gimnastic attack 0.89 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

44%

level

28%

Gimnastic scores more

28%

Real Sociedad II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

M. Rodriguez

46'

Ander Gorostidi← Marc Montalvo

59'

A. Mariezkurrena

60'

Antoñín Cortés← Marc Fernández

60'

David Concha← Jaume Jardí

61'

P. Domingo Ciuraneta

65'

P. Rodriguez

68'

Mikel Goti

70'

J. Oriol

72'

Eder García← Alex Marchal

72'

Álex Jiménez← Víctor Narro

72'

Migue Leal← Pol Domingo

74'

David Concha

76'

Ekain Orobengoa← Mikel Rodríguez

76'

Ibai Cabo← J. Ochieng

77'

I. Cabo

77'

Miguel

81'

T. Carbonell

85'

Jon Garro← Tomás Carbonell

90+1'

A. Gorostidi

Real

Gimnastic

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergio Francisco

72'▲Eder García←▼Alex Marchal

76'▲Ekain Orobengoa←▼Mikel Rodríguez

76'▲Ibai Cabo←▼J. Ochieng

85'▲Jon Garro←▼Tomás Carbonell

Real Sociedad II substitutes

GarcíaOrobengoaCaboGarroAranaRoperoGorosabel

Manager: Dani Vidal

46'▲Ander Gorostidi←▼Marc Montalvo

60'▲Antoñín Cortés←▼Marc Fernández

60'▲David Concha←▼Jaume Jardí

72'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Víctor Narro

72'▲Migue Leal←▼Pol Domingo

Gimnastic substitutes

GorostidiCortésConchaJiménezLealRebolloPérezLópezJuncà

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 1–1 Gimnastic

Real Sociedad II and Gimnastic drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 18, 2025.

Goals: Mikel Goti (68'), David Concha (74').

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad II vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 1–1 Gimnastic