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Gimnastic vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Play Offs 2022

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
P. Fernandez 82'
G. Carrera 90+4'
M. Rodriguez 60'
U. Dufur 10' (OG)
6/14/2025Primera División RFEF - Play OffsPrimera División RFEF - Play Offs · Promotion Play Offs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gimnastic23%
×Draw24%
Real Sociedad II53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.00
Real Sociedad II
1.67

Real Sociedad II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.33
Real Sociedad II
1.67

allows per match

Gimnastic
1.67
Real Sociedad II
0.67

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Real Sociedad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
47%
Gimnastic or Real Sociedad II
76%
Draw or Real Sociedad II
77%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
8%
Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
63%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
26%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
8%
Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
81%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
50%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
30%
Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.33 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Real Sociedad II attack 1.67 + Gimnastic defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gimnastic scores more
23%
level
24%
Real Sociedad II scores more
53%

Real Sociedad II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
U. DufurOwn goal
13'
G. Gorosabel
42'
J. Balda
57'
Miguel
58'
A. Marchal← A. Marchal
58'
J. Jardi← J. Jardi
58'
R. Torres← O. Sanz
60'
M. Rodriguez
64'
V. Narro← D. Concha
66'
O. Sanz
72'
Antonin← A. Jimenez
72'
G. Carrera← G. Carrera
72'
E. Orobengoa← D. Ramirez
82'
P. Fernandez
85'
A. Lebarbier← A. Lebarbier
85'
M. Rodriguez← M. Gibelalde
90+4'
G. Carrera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnastic vs Real Sociedad II

Real Sociedad II beat Gimnastic 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Play Offs on June 14, 2025.

Goals: U. Dufur (10' o.g.), M. Rodriguez (60'), P. Fernandez (82'), G. Carrera (90+4').