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Real Sociedad II vs Deportivo La Coruna — Segunda División 2018

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
3/1/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 28Zubieta Real Sociedad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Real Sociedad II33%
×Draw27%
Deportivo La Coruna39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.15
Deportivo La Coruna
1.27

Deportivo La Coruna creates 10% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 85 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.14
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
1.40
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
61%
Real Sociedad II or Deportivo La Coruna
73%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
67%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
68%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
32%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
46%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.14 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
33%
level
27%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
39%

Deportivo La Coruna at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad II vs Deportivo La Coruna

Deportivo La Coruna beat Real Sociedad II 3-2 in Segunda División on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Zubieta Real Sociedad in San Sebastian.