Deportivo La Coruna 0–3 Real Sociedad II

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Real Sociedad II

12/13/2025

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Municipal de Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna45%

×Draw26%

Real Sociedad II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.12

Deportivo La Coruna

1.46

Real Sociedad II

1.12

Deportivo La Coruna creates 30% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 42 away

1.42

creates per match

1.12

1.11

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.42

Real Sociedad II

1.12

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.11

Real Sociedad II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

71%

Deportivo La Coruna or Real Sociedad II

74%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

22%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

43%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

18%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

67%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

31%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

61%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.42 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real Sociedad II attack 1.12 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

45%

level

26%

Real Sociedad II scores more

29%

Deportivo La Coruna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff