Real Sociedad II 1–1 Cultural Leonesa

Real Sociedad II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cultural Leonesa

A. Mariezkurrena 61'

L. Ribeiro 56'

5/30/2026

Segunda División · Round 42Anoeta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Real Sociedad II41%

×Draw25%

Cultural Leonesa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.31

Real Sociedad II

1.46

Cultural Leonesa

1.31

Real Sociedad II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 23 away

1.14

creates per match

1.22

1.40

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.14

Cultural Leonesa

1.22

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.40

Cultural Leonesa

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

66%

Real Sociedad II or Cultural Leonesa

75%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

59%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

20%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

77%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

43%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

18%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

73%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

38%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

55%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.14 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.22 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

41%

level

25%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

34%

Real Sociedad II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Mariezkurrena

Real Sociedad II · F

7.9

Match Events

54'

Gorka Gorosabel

56'

L. Ribeiro↳ Bicho

59'

M. Rodriguez← G. Gorosabel

60'

A. Lebarbier← I. Aguirre

60'

P. Rodriguez← V. Garcia

61'

A. Mariezkurrena↳ J. Oleaga

68'

I. Calero← E. Satrustegui

68'

D. Collado← M. Diallo Selu

68'

Y. Gonzalez← S. Maestre

73'

L. Astiazaran← D. Diaz

82'

J. Garro← A. Dadie Izagirre

82'

J. Gorosabel← A. Mariezkurrena

87'

A. Morante← V. Moreno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealCultural

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots11

1.36Expected Goals (xG)0.71

6Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target3

5Off Target6

3Blocked2

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

323Total Passes534

261Accurate Passes459

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

6Offsides0