Cultural Leonesa 1–1 Real Sociedad II

Cultural Leonesa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad II

L. Ribeiro 87'

T. Carbonell 49'

1/3/2026

Segunda División · Round 20Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Cultural Leonesa31%

×Draw27%

Real Sociedad II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.32

Cultural Leonesa

1.10

Real Sociedad II

1.32

Real Sociedad II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 42 away

0.71

creates per match

1.12

1.52

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.71

Real Sociedad II

1.12

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.52

Real Sociedad II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

58%

Cultural Leonesa or Real Sociedad II

73%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

69%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

12%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

67%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

30%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

10%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

73%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

38%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

43%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 0.71 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

Real Sociedad II attack 1.12 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

31%

level

27%

Real Sociedad II scores more

42%

Real Sociedad II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

L. Ribeiro

Cultural Leonesa · F

8.2

Match Events

8'

Tomy Carbonell

19'

Gorka Carrera Zarranz

24'

27'

36'

45+1'

46'

S. Maestre← Pibe

46'

J. Larios← R. Hinojo

49'

T. Carbonell↳ M. Rodriguez

62'

J. Mboula← M. Justo

62'

L. Ribeiro← L. Chacon

71'

Peru Rodríguez

72'

Jon Balda

75'

D. Collado← R. Tresaco

76'

A. Marchal← J. Ochieng

76'

J. Eceizabarrena← M. Rodriguez

79'

Bicho

87'

L. Ribeiro

88'

D. Diaz← G. Carrera

89'

A. Mariezkurrena← G. Gorosabel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CulturalReal

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots15

1Corners7

6Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots15

1On Target4

5Off Target7

3Blocked4

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

466Total Passes330

393Accurate Passes243

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

6Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5