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Real Sociedad II vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
CANC
00:00
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
3/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Sociedad II50%
×Draw25%
Cultural Leonesa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.59
Cultural Leonesa
1.06

Real Sociedad II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.85
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
0.80
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
75%
Real Sociedad II or Cultural Leonesa
75%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
50%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
26%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
80%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
47%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
21%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
65%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
29%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
66%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
50%
level
25%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
25%

Real Sociedad II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Sociedad II face Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Real Sociedad II hosting Cultural Leonesa. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Sociedad II host Cultural Leonesa at Estadio Zubieta XXI.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.