Real Sociedad II 0–0 Burgos: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Burgos

5/3/2026

Segunda División · Round 38Anoeta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Real Sociedad II38%

×Draw28%

Burgos33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.09

Real Sociedad II

1.19

Burgos

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 105 away

1.14

creates per match

0.79

1.40

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.14

Burgos

0.79

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.40

Burgos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

67%

Real Sociedad II or Burgos

72%

Draw or Burgos

62%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

16%

Burgos wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

70%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

33%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

12%

Burgos 1+ goals

66%

Burgos 2+ goals

30%

Burgos 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

53%

Burgos (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.25 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.14 + Burgos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Burgos attack 0.79 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

38%

level

28%

Burgos scores more

33%

Real Sociedad II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Cantero

Burgos · G

8.2

Match Events

21'

Ibai Aguirre

46'

V. Mollejo← D. Gonzalez Ballesteros

55'

Íñigo Cordoba

68'

Mikel Rodriguez

69'

G. Gorosabel← I. Aguirre

69'

A. Marchal← J. Ochieng

72'

P. Galdames← I. Morante

73'

K. Appin← Curro

80'

Tomy Carbonell

83'

D. Diaz← L. Astiazaran

83'

A. Mariezkurrena← G. Carrera

85'

Pablo Galdames

88'

Gorka Gorosabel

90+1'

U. Agote← J. Balda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealBurgos

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots7

2Corners2

23Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target2

5Off Target4

6Blocked1

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

413Total Passes432

328Accurate Passes349

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

23Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4