Burgos vs Real Sociedad II — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Burgos56%
Real Sociedad II21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Burgos creates 79% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Burgos ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Burgos at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.57 · 6 matches
Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.07 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Burgos attack 1.65 + Real Sociedad II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.86
Real Sociedad II attack 1.51 + Burgos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Burgos at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Racing Santander
Malaga
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas
CastellónBurgos
Eibar
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
FC Andorra
Granada CFReal Sociedad II
Leganes
Valladolid
Cadiz
Mirandes
Huesca
Cultural Leonesa
ZaragozaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Burgos host Real Sociedad II on Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 16:30. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Burgos vs Real Sociedad II
Burgos beat Real Sociedad II 1-0 in Segunda División on October 25, 2025.
Goals: D. Gonzalez Ballesteros (84' pen).
Real Sociedad II controlled possession (51%) and registered 5 shots to 14.
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.