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Real Soacha vs Quindio — Primera B 2018

Real Soacha
Real Soacha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Quindio
Quindio
8/5/2024Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 3Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Real Soacha45%
×Draw28%
Quindio27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Soacha
1.33
Quindio
0.95

Real Soacha creates 40% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 153 away

creates per match

Real Soacha
1.48
Quindio
0.96

allows per match

Real Soacha
0.93
Quindio
1.18

finishing

Real Soacha+0.00on par
Quindio+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Soacha ↓

Quindio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Soacha or draw
73%
Real Soacha or Quindio
72%
Draw or Quindio
55%

Winning margin

Real Soacha wins by 2+
21%
Quindio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Soacha 1+ goals
74%
Real Soacha 2+ goals
38%
Real Soacha 3+ goals
15%
Quindio 1+ goals
61%
Quindio 2+ goals
25%
Quindio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Soacha (draw refunded)
63%
Quindio (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Soacha at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Quindio away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.18 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Soacha attack 1.48 + Quindio defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Quindio attack 0.96 + Real Soacha defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Soacha scores more
45%
level
28%
Quindio scores more
27%

Real Soacha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Soacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Real Soacha 2–1 Quindio

Real Soacha beat Quindio 2-1 in Primera B on August 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera in Bogotá, D.C..