Quindio 0–0 Real Soacha: Result & Stats | Primera B

Quindio

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Soacha

4/12/2025

Primera B · Apertura - 11Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Quindio45%

×Draw28%

Real Soacha26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QuindioExpected goals in this matchReal Soacha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.92

Quindio

1.30

Real Soacha

0.92

Quindio creates 41% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 56 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

0.84

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Quindio

1.41

Real Soacha

1.00

allows per match

Quindio

0.84

Real Soacha

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quindio+0.00on par

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quindio ↓

Real Soacha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Quindio or draw

74%

Quindio or Real Soacha

72%

Draw or Real Soacha

55%

Winning margin

Quindio wins by 2+

21%

Real Soacha wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Quindio 1+ goals

73%

Quindio 2+ goals

37%

Quindio 3+ goals

14%

Real Soacha 1+ goals

60%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

23%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Quindio (draw refunded)

63%

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quindio at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 153 matches

Real Soacha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quindio attack 1.41 + Real Soacha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Real Soacha attack 1.00 + Quindio defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Quindio scores more

45%

level

28%

Real Soacha scores more

26%

Quindio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Quindio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff