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Real Soacha vs Internacional Palmira — Primera B 2018

Real Soacha
Real Soacha
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Internacional Palmira
Internacional Palmira
3/5/2026Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 8Estadio Municipal de Mosquera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Real Soacha44%
×Draw27%
Internacional Palmira29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Soacha
1.36
Internacional Palmira
1.04

Real Soacha creates 31% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 49 away

creates per match

Real Soacha
1.48
Internacional Palmira
1.16

allows per match

Real Soacha
0.93
Internacional Palmira
1.24

finishing

Real Soacha+0.00on par
Internacional Palmira+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Soacha ↓

Internacional Palmira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Soacha or draw
71%
Real Soacha or Internacional Palmira
73%
Draw or Internacional Palmira
56%

Winning margin

Real Soacha wins by 2+
21%
Internacional Palmira wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Soacha 1+ goals
74%
Real Soacha 2+ goals
39%
Real Soacha 3+ goals
16%
Internacional Palmira 1+ goals
65%
Internacional Palmira 2+ goals
28%
Internacional Palmira 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Soacha (draw refunded)
61%
Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Soacha at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Internacional Palmira away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Soacha attack 1.48 + Internacional Palmira defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Internacional Palmira attack 1.16 + Real Soacha defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Soacha scores more
44%
level
27%
Internacional Palmira scores more
29%

Real Soacha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Soacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Soacha vs Internacional Palmira

Real Soacha and Internacional Palmira drew 2-2 in Primera B on March 5, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mosquera in Mosquera.