Internacional Palmira 3–2 Real Soacha

Internacional Palmira

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Real Soacha

5/18/2025

Primera B · Apertura - 16Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Internacional Palmira43%

×Draw29%

Real Soacha27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional PalmiraExpected goals in this matchReal Soacha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.89

Internacional Palmira

1.21

Real Soacha

0.89

Internacional Palmira creates 36% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 56 away

1.23

creates per match

1.00

0.77

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Internacional Palmira

1.23

Real Soacha

1.00

allows per match

Internacional Palmira

0.77

Real Soacha

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional Palmira+0.00on par

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Palmira ↓

Real Soacha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Internacional Palmira or draw

73%

Internacional Palmira or Real Soacha

71%

Draw or Real Soacha

57%

Winning margin

Internacional Palmira wins by 2+

19%

Real Soacha wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Internacional Palmira 1+ goals

70%

Internacional Palmira 2+ goals

34%

Internacional Palmira 3+ goals

12%

Real Soacha 1+ goals

59%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

22%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Internacional Palmira (draw refunded)

62%

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Palmira at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Real Soacha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Palmira attack 1.23 + Real Soacha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Soacha attack 1.00 + Internacional Palmira defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Internacional Palmira scores more

43%

level

29%

Real Soacha scores more

27%

Internacional Palmira at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Internacional Palmira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff