Real Soacha 0–0 Deportivo Pereira: Result & Stats

Real Soacha

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Pereira

3/20/2024

Copa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Enrique Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Real Soacha50%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Pereira23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SoachaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.83

Real Soacha

1.38

Deportivo Pereira

0.83

Real Soacha creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 24 away

1.25

creates per match

1.17

0.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Real Soacha

1.25

Deportivo Pereira

1.17

allows per match

Real Soacha

0.50

Deportivo Pereira

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Soacha ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Real Soacha or draw

77%

Real Soacha or Deportivo Pereira

72%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

50%

Winning margin

Real Soacha wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Soacha 1+ goals

75%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

40%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

16%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

56%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

20%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

69%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Soacha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Soacha attack 1.25 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.17 + Real Soacha defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Soacha scores more

50%

level

28%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

23%

Real Soacha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Soacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff