Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Real Soacha: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pereira

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Soacha

5/17/2026

Copa Colombia · Group Stage - 3Santiago de las Atalayas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Pereira53%

×Draw24%

Real Soacha23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchReal Soacha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.00

Deportivo Pereira

1.68

Real Soacha

1.00

Deportivo Pereira creates 68% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

1.56

creates per match

1.40

0.60

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.56

Real Soacha

1.40

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

0.60

Real Soacha

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Real Soacha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

77%

Deportivo Pereira or Real Soacha

76%

Draw or Real Soacha

47%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

29%

Real Soacha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

81%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

50%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

24%

Real Soacha 1+ goals

63%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

26%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

70%

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Real Soacha away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.56 + Real Soacha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Real Soacha attack 1.40 + Deportivo Pereira defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

53%

level

24%

Real Soacha scores more

23%

Deportivo Pereira at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff