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Real Santander vs Orsomarso — Primera B 2018

Real Santander
Real Santander
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
10/2/2024Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 7Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Real Santander43%
×Draw29%
Orsomarso29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Santander
1.25
Orsomarso
0.97

Real Santander creates 29% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 131 away

creates per match

Real Santander
1.13
Orsomarso
0.74

allows per match

Real Santander
1.20
Orsomarso
1.38

finishing

Real Santander+0.00on par
Orsomarso+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander ↓

Orsomarso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Santander or draw
71%
Real Santander or Orsomarso
71%
Draw or Orsomarso
57%

Winning margin

Real Santander wins by 2+
19%
Orsomarso wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Santander 1+ goals
71%
Real Santander 2+ goals
36%
Real Santander 3+ goals
13%
Orsomarso 1+ goals
62%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
25%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Santander (draw refunded)
60%
Orsomarso (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

Orsomarso away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander attack 1.13 + Orsomarso defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Orsomarso attack 0.74 + Real Santander defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Santander scores more
43%
level
29%
Orsomarso scores more
29%

Real Santander at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Real Santander 0–2 Orsomarso

Orsomarso beat Real Santander 2-0 in Primera B on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Concha in Piedecuesta.