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Orsomarso vs Real Santander — Primera B 2018

Orsomarso
Orsomarso
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Real Santander
Real Santander
3/11/2024Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 7Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Orsomarso46%
×Draw28%
Real Santander26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso
1.35
Real Santander
0.93

Orsomarso creates 45% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 126 away

creates per match

Orsomarso
1.08
Real Santander
0.73

allows per match

Orsomarso
1.13
Real Santander
1.62

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par
Real Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Real Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw
74%
Orsomarso or Real Santander
72%
Draw or Real Santander
54%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+
22%
Real Santander wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals
74%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
39%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
15%
Real Santander 1+ goals
61%
Real Santander 2+ goals
24%
Real Santander 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)
64%
Real Santander (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Real Santander away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.62 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.08 + Real Santander defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Santander attack 0.73 + Orsomarso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orsomarso scores more
46%
level
28%
Real Santander scores more
26%

Orsomarso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orsomarso vs Real Santander

Orsomarso beat Real Santander 4-2 in Primera B on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.