Real Santander 1–0 Leones FC: Result & Stats

Real Santander

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leones FC

3/17/2025

Primera B · Apertura - 7Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Real Santander41%

×Draw26%

Leones FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SantanderExpected goals in this matchLeones FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.25

Real Santander

1.41

Leones FC

1.25

Real Santander creates 13% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

1.13

creates per match

1.29

1.20

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Real Santander

1.13

Leones FC

1.29

allows per match

Real Santander

1.20

Leones FC

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Santander+0.00on par

Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander ↓

Leones FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Santander or draw

67%

Real Santander or Leones FC

74%

Draw or Leones FC

59%

Winning margin

Real Santander wins by 2+

19%

Leones FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Santander 1+ goals

76%

Real Santander 2+ goals

41%

Real Santander 3+ goals

17%

Leones FC 1+ goals

71%

Leones FC 2+ goals

36%

Leones FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Santander (draw refunded)

55%

Leones FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.69 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander attack 1.13 + Leones FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Real Santander defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Santander scores more

41%

level

26%

Leones FC scores more

33%

Real Santander at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff