Leones FC 2–0 Real Santander: Result & Stats

Leones FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Santander

7/22/2024

Primera B · Clausura - 1Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Leones FC52%

×Draw27%

Real Santander21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones FCExpected goals in this matchReal Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.83

Leones FC

1.46

Real Santander

0.83

Leones FC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 126 away

1.29

creates per match

0.73

0.94

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Leones FC

1.29

Real Santander

0.73

allows per match

Leones FC

0.94

Real Santander

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par

Real Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Real Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw

79%

Leones FC or Real Santander

73%

Draw or Real Santander

48%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+

26%

Real Santander wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals

77%

Leones FC 2+ goals

43%

Leones FC 3+ goals

18%

Real Santander 1+ goals

56%

Real Santander 2+ goals

20%

Real Santander 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)

71%

Real Santander (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 126 matches

Real Santander away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.62 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Real Santander defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real Santander attack 0.73 + Leones FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leones FC scores more

52%

level

27%

Real Santander scores more

21%

Leones FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leones FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff