Real San Joaquín 2–1 Provincial Osorno

Real San Joaquín

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Provincial Osorno

10/13/2025

Segunda División · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Real San Joaquín39%

×Draw26%

Provincial Osorno35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real San JoaquínExpected goals in this matchProvincial Osorno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.31

Real San Joaquín

1.39

Provincial Osorno

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 43 away

1.20

creates per match

1.26

1.35

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Real San Joaquín

1.20

Provincial Osorno

1.26

allows per match

Real San Joaquín

1.35

Provincial Osorno

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

Provincial Osorno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw

65%

Real San Joaquín or Provincial Osorno

74%

Draw or Provincial Osorno

61%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

18%

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

75%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

40%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

16%

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

73%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

38%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

52%

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 1.20 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more

39%

level

26%

Provincial Osorno scores more

35%

Real San Joaquín at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real San Joaquín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff