Provincial Osorno 3–2 Real San Joaquín

Provincial Osorno

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Real San Joaquín

10/20/2024

Segunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Provincial Osorno54%

×Draw24%

Real San Joaquín22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Provincial OsornoExpected goals in this matchReal San Joaquín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.01

Provincial Osorno

1.71

Real San Joaquín

1.01

Provincial Osorno creates 69% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 55 away

1.64

creates per match

0.95

1.07

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Provincial Osorno

1.64

Real San Joaquín

0.95

allows per match

Provincial Osorno

1.07

Real San Joaquín

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

Real San Joaquín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw

78%

Provincial Osorno or Real San Joaquín

76%

Draw or Real San Joaquín

46%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

29%

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

82%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

51%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

24%

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

64%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

27%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

71%

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Real San Joaquín away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Real San Joaquín attack 0.95 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more

54%

level

24%

Real San Joaquín scores more

22%

Provincial Osorno at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Provincial Osorno 3–2 Real San Joaquín

Provincial Osorno beat Real San Joaquín 3-2 in Segunda División on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta in Osorno.

Provincial Osorno vs Real San Joaquín — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Segunda División: Provincial Osorno 3–2 Real San Joaquín