Real San Joaquín 0–0 Municipal Salamanca

Real San Joaquín

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Municipal Salamanca

4/26/2026

Segunda División · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Real San Joaquín37%

×Draw27%

Municipal Salamanca36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real San JoaquínExpected goals in this matchMunicipal Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.26

Real San Joaquín

1.27

Municipal Salamanca

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.35

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Real San Joaquín

1.20

Municipal Salamanca

1.17

allows per match

Real San Joaquín

1.35

Municipal Salamanca

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Municipal Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

Municipal Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw

64%

Real San Joaquín or Municipal Salamanca

73%

Draw or Municipal Salamanca

63%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

16%

Municipal Salamanca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

72%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

36%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

14%

Municipal Salamanca 1+ goals

72%

Municipal Salamanca 2+ goals

36%

Municipal Salamanca 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

50%

Municipal Salamanca (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Municipal Salamanca away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 1.20 + Municipal Salamanca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Municipal Salamanca attack 1.17 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more

37%

level

27%

Municipal Salamanca scores more

36%

Real San Joaquín at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real San Joaquín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

22'

22'

31'

40'

42'

46'

S. Nunez← L. Marcotti

50'

J. Gonzalez

54'

F. Duran← J. Gonzalez

59'

A. Valencia

61'

A. Valencia

61'

64'

L. Macaya← M. Arias

72'

B. Figueroa← J. Carreno

72'

I. Morales← F. Arenas

74'

J. Aros Malgarejo

82'

B. Gonzalez← J. Gomez

90+1'

B. Marquez← D. Navarrete

90+1'

P. Contreras← R. Abbruzzese

Real

Municipal

22

Requena

24

Molina

21

Malgarejo

20

▼

3

23

27

15

▼

Arenas

18

▼

8

7

1

2

▼

6

5

3

22

▼

Carreno

7

Rojas

11

Farias

15

▼

Gomez

9

▼

Marcotti

24

▼

Abbruzzes

Manager: Jaime Lizama

46'▲S. Nunez←▼L. Marcotti

72'▲B. Figueroa←▼J. Carreno

82'▲B. Gonzalez←▼J. Gomez

90+1'▲B. Marquez←▼D. Navarrete

90+1'▲P. Contreras←▼R. Abbruzzese

Real San Joaquín substitutes

14Figueroa27Nunez16Gonzalez10Marquez20Reyes8Contreras12Saul

Manager: Felipe Cornejo

54'▲F. Duran←▼J. Gonzalez

64'▲L. Macaya←▼M. Arias

72'▲I. Morales←▼F. Arenas

Municipal Salamanca substitutes

10Duran16Osses9Diaz25Aravena12Ortiz14Morales4Macaya

Match Recap: Real San Joaquín vs Municipal Salamanca

Real San Joaquín and Municipal Salamanca drew 0-0 in Segunda División on April 26, 2026.

Real San Joaquín vs Municipal Salamanca — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real San Joaquín vs Municipal Salamanca