Municipal Salamanca 3–0 Real San Joaquín

Municipal Salamanca

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real San Joaquín

N. Zedan 90'

L. Oyarzo 3', 1'

9/6/2025

Segunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal de Salamanca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Municipal Salamanca57%

×Draw26%

Real San Joaquín17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Municipal SalamancaExpected goals in this matchReal San Joaquín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.69

Municipal Salamanca

1.53

Real San Joaquín

0.69

Municipal Salamanca creates 122% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 55 away

1.28

creates per match

0.95

0.44

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Municipal Salamanca

1.28

Real San Joaquín

0.95

allows per match

Municipal Salamanca

0.44

Real San Joaquín

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal Salamanca+0.00on par

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Salamanca ↓

Real San Joaquín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Municipal Salamanca or draw

83%

Municipal Salamanca or Real San Joaquín

74%

Draw or Real San Joaquín

43%

Winning margin

Municipal Salamanca wins by 2+

30%

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Municipal Salamanca 1+ goals

78%

Municipal Salamanca 2+ goals

45%

Municipal Salamanca 3+ goals

20%

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

50%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

15%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Municipal Salamanca (draw refunded)

77%

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Salamanca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.44 · 18 matches

Real San Joaquín away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Salamanca attack 1.28 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.53

Real San Joaquín attack 0.95 + Municipal Salamanca defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Municipal Salamanca scores more

57%

level

26%

Real San Joaquín scores more

17%

Municipal Salamanca at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Municipal Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

3'

22'

36'

41'

55'

58'

59'

68'

68'

M. Espinoza← A. Castro

69'

M. Espinoza

72'

T. Pino← F. Duran

72'

J. Maulen← M. Carvajal

79'

J. Lorca← A. Valencia

81'

88'

89'

90+3'

90'

Municipal

Real

31

Rutherley

25

▼

Castro

4

Munoz

6

Munoz

2

▼

Araya

11

▼

Duran

28

▼

Pacheco

10

▼

30

26

9

1

21

28

▼

5

17

19

4

▼

Valencia

8

Gonzalez

16

Vergara

14

⚽2

Oyarzo

30

⚽

Zedan

Manager: J. Viale

58'▲C. Dubo←▼D. Salvia

79'▲J. Lorca←▼A. Valencia

Municipal Salamanca substitutes

20Dubo18Lara27Carreno6Morales2Neculhueque13Pasten15Lorca

Manager: J. Lizama

55'▲J. Duarte←▼V. Araya

68'▲R. Cobo←▼L. Pacheco

68'▲M. Espinoza←▼A. Castro

72'▲T. Pino←▼F. Duran

72'▲J. Maulen←▼M. Carvajal

Real San Joaquín substitutes

17Perez14Duarte29Cobo20Pino1Reyes8Maulen27Espinoza

Match Recap: Municipal Salamanca vs Real San Joaquín

Municipal Salamanca beat Real San Joaquín 3-0 in Segunda División on September 6, 2025.

Goals: L. Oyarzo (1', 3'), N. Zedan (90').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Salamanca in Salamanca.

Municipal Salamanca vs Real San Joaquín — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Municipal Salamanca vs Real San Joaquín