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Real San Joaquín vs Iberia — Segunda División 2020

Real San Joaquín
Real San Joaquín
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Iberia
Iberia
7/29/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Municipal de San Joaquín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Real San Joaquín31%
×Draw27%
Iberia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real San Joaquín
1.11
Iberia
1.33

Iberia creates 20% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 46 away

creates per match

Real San Joaquín
1.20
Iberia
1.30

allows per match

Real San Joaquín
1.35
Iberia
1.02

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par
Iberia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

Iberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw
58%
Real San Joaquín or Iberia
73%
Draw or Iberia
69%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+
12%
Iberia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals
67%
Real San Joaquín 2+ goals
30%
Real San Joaquín 3+ goals
10%
Iberia 1+ goals
74%
Iberia 2+ goals
38%
Iberia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)
43%
Iberia (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Iberia away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 1.20 + Iberia defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Iberia attack 1.30 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more
31%
level
27%
Iberia scores more
42%

Iberia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Iberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Real San Joaquín 0–0 Iberia

Real San Joaquín and Iberia drew 0-0 in Segunda División on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de San Joaquín in San Joaquín.