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Iberia vs Real San Joaquín — Segunda División 2020

Iberia
Iberia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real San Joaquín
Real San Joaquín
3/19/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Municipal de Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Iberia47%
×Draw26%
Real San Joaquín27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iberia
1.50
Real San Joaquín
1.08

Iberia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 55 away

creates per match

Iberia
1.22
Real San Joaquín
0.95

allows per match

Iberia
1.22
Real San Joaquín
1.78

finishing

Iberia+0.00on par
Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iberia ↓

Real San Joaquín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Iberia or draw
73%
Iberia or Real San Joaquín
74%
Draw or Real San Joaquín
53%

Winning margin

Iberia wins by 2+
23%
Real San Joaquín wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Iberia 1+ goals
78%
Iberia 2+ goals
44%
Iberia 3+ goals
19%
Real San Joaquín 1+ goals
66%
Real San Joaquín 2+ goals
29%
Real San Joaquín 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Iberia (draw refunded)
63%
Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iberia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

Real San Joaquín away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iberia attack 1.22 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Real San Joaquín attack 0.95 + Iberia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Iberia scores more
47%
level
26%
Real San Joaquín scores more
27%

Iberia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Iberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iberia vs Real San Joaquín

Iberia beat Real San Joaquín 3-0 in Segunda División on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Ángeles in Los Ángeles.