Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real San Andrés W vs Deportes Tolima W — Liga Femenina 2020

Real San Andrés W
Real San Andrés W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportes Tolima W
Deportes Tolima W
5/6/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 14Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Real San Andrés W47%
×Draw24%
Deportes Tolima W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real San Andrés W
1.72
Deportes Tolima W
1.31

Real San Andrés W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

creates per match

Real San Andrés W
0.94
Deportes Tolima W
1.00

allows per match

Real San Andrés W
1.63
Deportes Tolima W
2.50

finishing

Real San Andrés W+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Andrés W ↓

Deportes Tolima W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Real San Andrés W or draw
71%
Real San Andrés W or Deportes Tolima W
76%
Draw or Deportes Tolima W
53%

Winning margin

Real San Andrés W wins by 2+
25%
Deportes Tolima W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real San Andrés W 1+ goals
82%
Real San Andrés W 2+ goals
51%
Real San Andrés W 3+ goals
25%
Deportes Tolima W 1+ goals
73%
Deportes Tolima W 2+ goals
38%
Deportes Tolima W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)
62%
Deportes Tolima W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Andrés W at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Deportes Tolima W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Andrés W attack 0.94 + Deportes Tolima W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.72

Deportes Tolima W attack 1.00 + Real San Andrés W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real San Andrés W scores more
47%
level
24%
Deportes Tolima W scores more
29%

Real San Andrés W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real San Andrés W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real San Andrés W vs Deportes Tolima W

Real San Andrés W beat Deportes Tolima W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Concha in Piedecuesta.