Deportes Tolima W 3–0 Real San Andrés W

Deportes Tolima W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real San Andrés W

5/1/2022

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 15Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Deportes Tolima W50%

×Draw23%

Real San Andrés W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes Tolima WExpected goals in this matchReal San Andrés W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.25

Deportes Tolima W

1.80

Real San Andrés W

1.25

Deportes Tolima W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

0.88

creates per match

0.75

1.75

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Deportes Tolima W

0.88

Real San Andrés W

0.75

allows per match

Deportes Tolima W

1.75

Real San Andrés W

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Tolima W+0.00on par

Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima W ↓

Real San Andrés W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima W or draw

73%

Deportes Tolima W or Real San Andrés W

77%

Draw or Real San Andrés W

50%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima W wins by 2+

28%

Real San Andrés W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima W 1+ goals

83%

Deportes Tolima W 2+ goals

54%

Deportes Tolima W 3+ goals

27%

Real San Andrés W 1+ goals

71%

Real San Andrés W 2+ goals

36%

Real San Andrés W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima W (draw refunded)

65%

Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima W at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

Real San Andrés W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima W attack 0.88 + Real San Andrés W defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.80

Real San Andrés W attack 0.75 + Deportes Tolima W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportes Tolima W scores more

50%

level

23%

Real San Andrés W scores more

27%

Deportes Tolima W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportes Tolima W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff