Real San Andrés W 3–3 Atlético Huila W

Real San Andrés W

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Huila W

3/20/2022

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 7Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Real San Andrés W33%

×Draw27%

Atlético Huila W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real San Andrés WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Huila W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.31

Real San Andrés W

1.16

Atlético Huila W

1.31

Atlético Huila W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

0.94

creates per match

1.00

1.63

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Real San Andrés W

0.94

Atlético Huila W

1.00

allows per match

Real San Andrés W

1.63

Atlético Huila W

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Atlético Huila W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Andrés W ↓

Atlético Huila W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real San Andrés W or draw

60%

Real San Andrés W or Atlético Huila W

73%

Draw or Atlético Huila W

67%

Winning margin

Real San Andrés W wins by 2+

13%

Atlético Huila W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Real San Andrés W 1+ goals

69%

Real San Andrés W 2+ goals

32%

Real San Andrés W 3+ goals

11%

Atlético Huila W 1+ goals

73%

Atlético Huila W 2+ goals

38%

Atlético Huila W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)

45%

Atlético Huila W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Andrés W at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Atlético Huila W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Andrés W attack 0.94 + Atlético Huila W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atlético Huila W attack 1.00 + Real San Andrés W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real San Andrés W scores more

33%

level

27%

Atlético Huila W scores more

40%

Atlético Huila W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Huila W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff