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Atlético Huila W vs Real San Andrés W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Huila W
Atlético Huila W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Real San Andrés W
Real San Andrés W
4/19/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 11Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Huila W57%
×Draw22%
Real San Andrés W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Huila W
1.96
Real San Andrés W
1.09

Atlético Huila W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Atlético Huila W
1.19
Real San Andrés W
0.75

allows per match

Atlético Huila W
1.44
Real San Andrés W
2.72

finishing

Atlético Huila W+0.00on par
Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Huila W ↓

Real San Andrés W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Atlético Huila W or draw
79%
Atlético Huila W or Real San Andrés W
78%
Draw or Real San Andrés W
43%

Winning margin

Atlético Huila W wins by 2+
34%
Real San Andrés W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Huila W 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Huila W 2+ goals
58%
Atlético Huila W 3+ goals
31%
Real San Andrés W 1+ goals
66%
Real San Andrés W 2+ goals
30%
Real San Andrés W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Huila W (draw refunded)
73%
Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Huila W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Real San Andrés W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Huila W attack 1.19 + Real San Andrés W defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.96

Real San Andrés W attack 0.75 + Atlético Huila W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlético Huila W scores more
57%
level
22%
Real San Andrés W scores more
21%

Atlético Huila W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Huila W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Atlético Huila W 2–1 Real San Andrés W

Atlético Huila W beat Real San Andrés W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.