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Real Salt Lake vs Portland Timbers — Major League Soccer 2026

Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers
5/15/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 13Rio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Real Salt Lake52%
×Draw23%
Portland Timbers25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Salt Lake
1.78
Portland Timbers
1.17

Real Salt Lake creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 36 away

creates per match

Real Salt Lake
1.73
Portland Timbers
1.20

allows per match

Real Salt Lake
1.15
Portland Timbers
1.83

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.30scores more
Portland Timbers+0.08on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

Portland Timbers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw
75%
Real Salt Lake or Portland Timbers
77%
Draw or Portland Timbers
48%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+
28%
Portland Timbers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals
83%
Real Salt Lake 2+ goals
53%
Real Salt Lake 3+ goals
26%
Portland Timbers 1+ goals
69%
Portland Timbers 2+ goals
33%
Portland Timbers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)
67%
Portland Timbers (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.15 · 32 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.73 + Portland Timbers defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.78

Portland Timbers attack 1.20 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more
52%
level
23%
Portland Timbers scores more
25%

Real Salt Lake at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
S. JunquaReal Salt LakeReal Salt Lake · D
7.9

Match Events

21'
Bode Hidalgo
46'
Cristhian Paredes
59'
D. Marczuk← A. Piol
59'
J. Barea← D. Goncalves
61'
D. Chara← J. Ortiz
61'
J. Rodriguez← Antony
64'
Noel Caliskan
69'
Diego Luna
72'
O. Fernandez← D. Pereira da Costa
72'
F. Mora← K. Kelsy
78'
P. Ruiz← B. Ojeda
79'
A. Lassiter← S. Moreno

Possession

50%Real

Shots

8Real

Pass accuracy

49%Real

Statistics

RealPortland
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots12
0.53Expected Goals (xG)0.82
4Corners0
13Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots12
2On Target4
4Off Target7
2Blocked1
5Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
473Total Passes485
398Accurate Passes416
84%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
0.10Goals Prevented0.10
Discipline
13Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Real Salt Lake vs Portland Timbers

Real Salt Lake and Portland Timbers drew 0-0 in Major League Soccer on May 15, 2025.

Real Salt Lake controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy.