Real Salt Lake 3–3 Portland Timbers: Result & Stats

Real Salt Lake

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Portland Timbers

Diogo Gonçalves 89'

D. Luna 22'

D. Marczuk 10'

J. Rodríguez 90+2'

Evander 76'

Antony 62'

9/22/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 44America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Real Salt Lake52%

×Draw23%

Portland Timbers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Salt LakeExpected goals in this matchPortland Timbers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.17

Real Salt Lake

1.78

Portland Timbers

1.17

Real Salt Lake creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 36 away

1.73

creates per match

1.20

1.15

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Real Salt Lake

1.73

Portland Timbers

1.20

allows per match

Real Salt Lake

1.15

Portland Timbers

1.83

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.30scores more

Portland Timbers+0.08on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

Portland Timbers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw

75%

Real Salt Lake or Portland Timbers

77%

Draw or Portland Timbers

48%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

28%

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

83%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

53%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

26%

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

69%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

33%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

67%

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.15 · 32 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.73 + Portland Timbers defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.78

Portland Timbers attack 1.20 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more

52%

level

23%

Portland Timbers scores more

25%

Real Salt Lake at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Luna

Real Salt Lake · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

22'

46'

48'

54'

M. Toye← F. Mora

54'

J. Rodríguez← S. Moreno

54'

55'

57'

61'

61'

62'

65'

Diogo Gonçalves← M. Crooks

65'

B. Ojeda← N. Caliskan

72'

A. Katranis

76'

D. Chará← E. Williamson

76'

Evander

82'

A. Brody← A. Katranis

89'

Diogo Gonçalves↳ C. Arango

90+2'

J. Rodríguez↳ M. Araujo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealPortland

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots9

2.01Expected Goals (xG)0.50

6Corners3

18Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots9

4On Target4

7Off Target3

7Blocked2

10Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

461Total Passes413

375Accurate Passes322

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.43Goals Prevented-0.43

Discipline

18Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1