Real Salt Lake 1–0 Philadelphia Union

Real Salt Lake

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Philadelphia Union

5/28/2017

Major League Soccer · Round 15Rio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Real Salt Lake43%

×Draw24%

Philadelphia Union32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Salt LakeExpected goals in this matchPhiladelphia Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.34

Real Salt Lake

1.59

Philadelphia Union

1.34

Real Salt Lake creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.70

creates per match

1.46

1.22

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Real Salt Lake

1.70

Philadelphia Union

1.46

allows per match

Real Salt Lake

1.22

Philadelphia Union

1.49

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.14scores more

Philadelphia Union+0.01on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

Philadelphia Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw

68%

Real Salt Lake or Philadelphia Union

76%

Draw or Philadelphia Union

57%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

22%

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

80%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

47%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

21%

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals

74%

Philadelphia Union 2+ goals

39%

Philadelphia Union 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

57%

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

Philadelphia Union away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.70 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Philadelphia Union attack 1.46 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more

43%

level

24%

Philadelphia Union scores more

32%

Real Salt Lake at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff