Philadelphia Union 1–2 Real Salt Lake

Philadelphia Union

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Real Salt Lake

7/31/2016

Major League Soccer · Round 22Talen Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Philadelphia Union51%

×Draw24%

Real Salt Lake26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philadelphia UnionExpected goals in this matchReal Salt Lake

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.16

Philadelphia Union

1.73

Real Salt Lake

1.16

Philadelphia Union creates 49% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

1.48

creates per match

1.20

1.11

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Philadelphia Union

1.48

Real Salt Lake

1.20

allows per match

Philadelphia Union

1.11

Real Salt Lake

1.98

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Philadelphia Union+0.19scores more

Real Salt Lake-0.01on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union ↓

Real Salt Lake →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union or draw

74%

Philadelphia Union or Real Salt Lake

76%

Draw or Real Salt Lake

49%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+

27%

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals

82%

Philadelphia Union 2+ goals

52%

Philadelphia Union 3+ goals

25%

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

69%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

32%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)

66%

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 12 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union attack 1.48 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Philadelphia Union scores more

51%

level

24%

Real Salt Lake scores more

26%

Philadelphia Union at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff