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Real Salt Lake vs New York Red Bulls — Major League Soccer 2026

Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls
3/18/2018Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 4Rio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Real Salt Lake47%
×Draw24%
New York Red Bulls29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Salt Lake
1.66
New York Red Bulls
1.25

Real Salt Lake creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Real Salt Lake
1.70
New York Red Bulls
1.28

allows per match

Real Salt Lake
1.22
New York Red Bulls
1.62

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.14scores more
New York Red Bulls-0.33scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

New York Red Bulls →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw
71%
Real Salt Lake or New York Red Bulls
76%
Draw or New York Red Bulls
53%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+
25%
New York Red Bulls wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals
81%
Real Salt Lake 2+ goals
49%
Real Salt Lake 3+ goals
23%
New York Red Bulls 1+ goals
71%
New York Red Bulls 2+ goals
36%
New York Red Bulls 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)
62%
New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

New York Red Bulls away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.70 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.66

New York Red Bulls attack 1.28 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more
47%
level
24%
New York Red Bulls scores more
29%

Real Salt Lake at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Salt Lake vs New York Red Bulls

Real Salt Lake beat New York Red Bulls 1-0 in Major League Soccer on March 18, 2018.

The match was played at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy.