New York Red Bulls 4–0 Real Salt Lake

New York Red Bulls

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Salt Lake

Omir Fernandez 83'

Michael Murillo 64'

Daniel Royer 59'

Marcelo Silva 58' (OG)

6/1/2019

Major League Soccer · Round 18Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

New York Red Bulls51%

×Draw22%

Real Salt Lake27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New York Red BullsExpected goals in this matchReal Salt Lake

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.34

New York Red Bulls

1.91

Real Salt Lake

1.34

New York Red Bulls creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.84

creates per match

1.20

1.49

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

New York Red Bulls

1.84

Real Salt Lake

1.20

allows per match

New York Red Bulls

1.49

Real Salt Lake

1.98

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

New York Red Bulls+0.05on par

Real Salt Lake-0.01on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York Red Bulls ↓

Real Salt Lake →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

New York Red Bulls or draw

73%

New York Red Bulls or Real Salt Lake

78%

Draw or Real Salt Lake

49%

Winning margin

New York Red Bulls wins by 2+

29%

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

New York Red Bulls 1+ goals

85%

New York Red Bulls 2+ goals

57%

New York Red Bulls 3+ goals

30%

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

74%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

39%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)

65%

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York Red Bulls at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York Red Bulls attack 1.84 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.91

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

New York Red Bulls scores more

51%

level

22%

Real Salt Lake scores more

27%

New York Red Bulls at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "New York Red Bulls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

62

Michael Murillo

New York Red Bulls · D

8.4

Match Events

15'

Nedum Onuoha

46'

Kyle Beckerman← Nick Besler

58'

Marcelo SilvaOwn goal

59'

Daniel Royer↳ Alejandro Romero Gamarra

64'

Michael Murillo

73'

Sean Nealis← Amro Tarek

79'

Omir Fernandez← Daniel Royer

80'

Andreas Ivan← Alex Muyl

83'

Omir Fernandez↳ Andreas Ivan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewReal

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots10

5Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots10

9On Target3

7Off Target5

3Blocked2

9Inside Box4

10Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

545Total Passes328

421Accurate Passes208

77%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1