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Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution — Major League Soccer 2026

Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
New England Revolution
New England Revolution
9/1/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 40America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Real Salt Lake55%
×Draw22%
New England Revolution23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Salt Lake
2.00
New England Revolution
1.23

Real Salt Lake creates 63% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Real Salt Lake
1.70
New England Revolution
1.24

allows per match

Real Salt Lake
1.22
New England Revolution
2.30

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.14scores more
New England Revolution-0.16scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

New England Revolution →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw
77%
Real Salt Lake or New England Revolution
78%
Draw or New England Revolution
45%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+
32%
New England Revolution wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals
86%
Real Salt Lake 2+ goals
59%
Real Salt Lake 3+ goals
32%
New England Revolution 1+ goals
71%
New England Revolution 2+ goals
35%
New England Revolution 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)
70%
New England Revolution (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

New England Revolution away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.30 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.70 + New England Revolution defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.00

New England Revolution attack 1.24 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more
55%
level
22%
New England Revolution scores more
23%

Real Salt Lake at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Real Salt Lake 2–0 New England Revolution

Real Salt Lake beat New England Revolution 2-0 in Major League Soccer on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at America First Field in Sandy, Utah.