New England Revolution 2–3 Real Salt Lake

New England Revolution

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Real Salt Lake

3/13/2022

Major League Soccer · Round 4Gillette Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

New England Revolution47%

×Draw25%

Real Salt Lake28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New England RevolutionExpected goals in this matchReal Salt Lake

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.17

New England Revolution

1.57

Real Salt Lake

1.17

New England Revolution creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.17

creates per match

1.20

1.14

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

New England Revolution

1.17

Real Salt Lake

1.20

allows per match

New England Revolution

1.14

Real Salt Lake

1.98

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

New England Revolution+0.40scores more

Real Salt Lake-0.01on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New England Revolution ↓

Real Salt Lake →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

New England Revolution or draw

72%

New England Revolution or Real Salt Lake

75%

Draw or Real Salt Lake

53%

Winning margin

New England Revolution wins by 2+

24%

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

New England Revolution 1+ goals

79%

New England Revolution 2+ goals

46%

New England Revolution 3+ goals

21%

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

69%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

33%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

New England Revolution (draw refunded)

62%

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New England Revolution at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New England Revolution attack 1.17 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.57

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + New England Revolution defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

New England Revolution scores more

47%

level

25%

Real Salt Lake scores more

28%

New England Revolution at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "New England Revolution will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff