Real Salt Lake 1–0 Houston Dynamo: Result & Stats

Real Salt Lake

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Houston Dynamo

7/13/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 22Rio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Real Salt Lake46%

×Draw24%

Houston Dynamo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Salt LakeExpected goals in this matchHouston Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.26

Real Salt Lake

1.63

Houston Dynamo

1.26

Real Salt Lake creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.70

creates per match

1.30

1.22

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Real Salt Lake

1.70

Houston Dynamo

1.30

allows per match

Real Salt Lake

1.22

Houston Dynamo

1.56

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.14scores more

Houston Dynamo+0.38scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

Houston Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw

70%

Real Salt Lake or Houston Dynamo

76%

Draw or Houston Dynamo

54%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

24%

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

80%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

48%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

22%

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals

72%

Houston Dynamo 2+ goals

36%

Houston Dynamo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

61%

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

Houston Dynamo away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.70 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

Houston Dynamo attack 1.30 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more

46%

level

24%

Houston Dynamo scores more

30%

Real Salt Lake at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff