Houston Dynamo 4–1 Real Salt Lake: Result & Stats

Houston Dynamo

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Real Salt Lake

9/15/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 41Shell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Houston Dynamo48%

×Draw24%

Real Salt Lake28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Houston DynamoExpected goals in this matchReal Salt Lake

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.23

Houston Dynamo

1.69

Real Salt Lake

1.23

Houston Dynamo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.39

creates per match

1.20

1.27

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Houston Dynamo

1.39

Real Salt Lake

1.20

allows per match

Houston Dynamo

1.27

Real Salt Lake

1.98

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Houston Dynamo-0.10scores less

Real Salt Lake-0.01on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo ↓

Real Salt Lake →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo or draw

72%

Houston Dynamo or Real Salt Lake

76%

Draw or Real Salt Lake

52%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+

26%

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals

82%

Houston Dynamo 2+ goals

50%

Houston Dynamo 3+ goals

24%

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

71%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

35%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)

63%

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.27 · 21 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo attack 1.39 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.69

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Houston Dynamo scores more

48%

level

24%

Real Salt Lake scores more

28%

Houston Dynamo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Houston Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Houston Dynamo 4–1 Real Salt Lake

Houston Dynamo beat Real Salt Lake 4-1 in Major League Soccer on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Texas.

Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake — Major League Soccer 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Major League Soccer: Houston Dynamo 4–1 Real Salt Lake