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Real Salt Lake vs CF Montreal — Major League Soccer 2018

Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
8/12/2018Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 28Rio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Real Salt Lake47%
×Draw24%
CF Montreal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Salt Lake
1.73
CF Montreal
1.30

Real Salt Lake creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Real Salt Lake
1.70
CF Montreal
1.39

allows per match

Real Salt Lake
1.22
CF Montreal
1.76

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.14scores more
CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw
71%
Real Salt Lake or CF Montreal
76%
Draw or CF Montreal
53%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+
25%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals
82%
Real Salt Lake 2+ goals
52%
Real Salt Lake 3+ goals
25%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
73%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
37%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)
62%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.70 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more
47%
level
24%
CF Montreal scores more
29%

Real Salt Lake at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Salt Lake will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Real Salt Lake 1–1 CF Montreal

Real Salt Lake and CF Montreal drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy.