CF Montreal 1–2 Real Salt Lake: Result & Stats

CF Montreal

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Real Salt Lake

5/22/2022

Major League Soccer · Round 18Stade Saputo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CF Montreal43%

×Draw25%

Real Salt Lake33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF MontrealExpected goals in this matchReal Salt Lake

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.33

CF Montreal

1.56

Real Salt Lake

1.33

CF Montreal creates 17% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.14

creates per match

1.20

1.46

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

CF Montreal

1.14

Real Salt Lake

1.20

allows per match

CF Montreal

1.46

Real Salt Lake

1.98

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

CF Montreal-0.14scores less

Real Salt Lake-0.01on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Real Salt Lake →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw

67%

CF Montreal or Real Salt Lake

75%

Draw or Real Salt Lake

57%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+

21%

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals

79%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

46%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

21%

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

74%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

38%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

57%

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.14 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.56

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CF Montreal scores more

43%

level

25%

Real Salt Lake scores more

33%

CF Montreal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff