Real Potosí vs Nacional Potosí — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Real Potosí39%
Nacional Potosí36%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 18 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Real Potosí ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Real Potosí at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches
Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Real Potosí attack 1.67 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55
Nacional Potosí attack 1.28 + Real Potosí defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Real Potosí at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Real Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Always Ready
Bolívar
The Strongest
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
Blooming
Independiente PetroleroNacional Potosí
Guabirá
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Aurora
Real Tomayapo
Oriente Petrolero
Real Oruro
Universitario de Vinto
ABB
Jorge WilstermannIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Real Potosí host Nacional Potosí on Sunday, 2 May 2021 at 19:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Real Potosí vs Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí beat Real Potosí 2-1 in Primera División on May 2, 2021.
Goals: L. Escalante (29'), L. Torrico (38'), D. Navarro (86').
The match was played at Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte in Potosí.