Nacional Potosí 4–2 Real Potosí: Result & Stats

Nacional Potosí

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Real Potosí

R. Cuéllar 56', 36'

S. Gularte 34', 18' (pen)

G. Yecerotte 83'

C. Bekamenga 68'

9/26/2021

Primera División · Round 21Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nacional Potosí65%

×Draw21%

Real Potosí14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional PotosíExpected goals in this matchReal Potosí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.77

Nacional Potosí

1.94

Real Potosí

0.77

Nacional Potosí creates 152% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

0.40

1.14

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Nacional Potosí

2.00

Real Potosí

0.40

allows per match

Nacional Potosí

1.14

Real Potosí

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Real Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Real Potosí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw

86%

Nacional Potosí or Real Potosí

79%

Draw or Real Potosí

35%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

39%

Real Potosí wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

86%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

58%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

30%

Real Potosí 1+ goals

54%

Real Potosí 2+ goals

18%

Real Potosí 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

82%

Real Potosí (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Real Potosí away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.00 + Real Potosí defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.94

Real Potosí attack 0.40 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more

65%

level

21%

Real Potosí scores more

14%

Nacional Potosí at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

S. GulartePenalty

21'

34'

36'

45'

46'

L. Escalante← N. Cisneros

46'

C. Bekamenga← J. Fernández

46'

A. Morales← M. Ortiz

56'

R. Cuéllar

59'

M. Padilla← R. Cuéllar

59'

A. Hinestroza← M. Quiroga

68'

73'

73'

74'

77'

78'

83'

84'

86'

88'

Nacional

Real

1

21

7

3

6

14

▼

Fernández

41

▼

Cisneros

25

▼

Ortiz

11

⚽

19

35

12

2

6

3

25

⚽2

▼

Cuéllar

8

▼

Quiroga

30

▼

Álvarez

4

Rioja

23

▼

Barbery

29

Cuellar

17

⚽2

Gularte

Manager: A. Illanes

59'▲M. Padilla←▼R. Cuéllar

59'▲A. Hinestroza←▼M. Quiroga

73'▲S. Ortiz←▼M. Barbery

73'▲M. Andia←▼C. Álvarez

88'▲R. Rivas←▼M. Padilla

Nacional Potosí substitutes

11Padilla16Hinestroza18Ortiz15Andia1Rivas10Jiménez5Cuéllar26Cabral21Pavia

Manager: M. Sandy

46'▲L. Escalante←▼N. Cisneros

46'▲C. Bekamenga←▼J. Fernández

46'▲A. Morales←▼M. Ortiz

Real Potosí substitutes

26Escalante9Bekamenga18Morales2Garnica36Méndez5Ferrufino12Peña10Gutiérrez37Pantigoso

Primera División: Nacional Potosí 4–2 Real Potosí

Nacional Potosí beat Real Potosí 4-2 in Primera División on September 26, 2021.

Goals: S. Gularte (18' pen, 34'), R. Cuéllar (36', 56'), C. Bekamenga (68'), G. Yecerotte (83').

The match was played at Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte in Potosí.

Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División: Nacional Potosí 4–2 Real Potosí