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Real Potosí vs Club Universitario — Primera División 2019

Real Potosí
Real Potosí
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Club Universitario
Club Universitario
12/16/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Relegation RoundEstadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Real Potosí54%
×Draw22%
Club Universitario23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Potosí
1.92
Club Universitario
1.19

Real Potosí creates 61% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 22 away

creates per match

Real Potosí
1.78
Club Universitario
0.59

allows per match

Real Potosí
1.78
Club Universitario
2.05

finishing

Real Potosí+0.00on par
Club Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Potosí ↓

Club Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Real Potosí or draw
77%
Real Potosí or Club Universitario
78%
Draw or Club Universitario
46%

Winning margin

Real Potosí wins by 2+
31%
Club Universitario wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Potosí 1+ goals
85%
Real Potosí 2+ goals
57%
Real Potosí 3+ goals
30%
Club Universitario 1+ goals
70%
Club Universitario 2+ goals
33%
Club Universitario 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Potosí (draw refunded)
70%
Club Universitario (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Potosí at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 60 matches

Club Universitario away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Potosí attack 1.78 + Club Universitario defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.92

Club Universitario attack 0.59 + Real Potosí defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Potosí scores more
54%
level
22%
Club Universitario scores more
23%

Real Potosí at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Potosí vs Club Universitario

Club Universitario beat Real Potosí 2-1 in Primera División on December 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte in Potosí.