Club Universitario 2–0 Real Potosí: Result & Stats

Club Universitario

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Potosí

12/19/2021

Primera División · Relegation RoundEstadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Club Universitario57%

×Draw22%

Real Potosí21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchReal Potosí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.10

Club Universitario

1.95

Real Potosí

1.10

Club Universitario creates 77% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 58 away

1.45

creates per match

0.84

1.36

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Club Universitario

1.45

Real Potosí

0.84

allows per match

Club Universitario

1.36

Real Potosí

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Universitario+0.00on par

Real Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Universitario ↓

Real Potosí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Club Universitario or draw

79%

Club Universitario or Real Potosí

78%

Draw or Real Potosí

43%

Winning margin

Club Universitario wins by 2+

33%

Real Potosí wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club Universitario 1+ goals

86%

Club Universitario 2+ goals

58%

Club Universitario 3+ goals

31%

Real Potosí 1+ goals

67%

Real Potosí 2+ goals

30%

Real Potosí 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Club Universitario (draw refunded)

73%

Real Potosí (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Universitario at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Real Potosí away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.45 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Universitario attack 1.45 + Real Potosí defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.95

Real Potosí attack 0.84 + Club Universitario defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Club Universitario scores more

57%

level

22%

Real Potosí scores more

21%

Club Universitario at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Club Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Club Universitario 2–0 Real Potosí

Club Universitario beat Real Potosí 2-0 in Primera División on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.

Club Universitario vs Real Potosí — Primera División 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera División: Club Universitario 2–0 Real Potosí