Real Potosí 1–3 Blooming: Result & Stats

Real Potosí

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Blooming

R. Borda 79'

J. Pérez 89'

J. Herrera 60', 7'

1/26/2020

Primera División · Round 2Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Real Potosí51%

×Draw21%

Blooming27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PotosíExpected goals in this matchBlooming

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.44

Real Potosí

2.05

Blooming

1.44

Real Potosí creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

1.67

creates per match

1.20

1.67

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Real Potosí

1.67

Blooming

1.20

allows per match

Real Potosí

1.67

Blooming

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Potosí+0.00on par

Blooming+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Potosí ↓

Blooming →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Real Potosí or draw

73%

Real Potosí or Blooming

79%

Draw or Blooming

49%

Winning margin

Real Potosí wins by 2+

30%

Blooming wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Potosí 1+ goals

87%

Real Potosí 2+ goals

61%

Real Potosí 3+ goals

33%

Blooming 1+ goals

76%

Blooming 2+ goals

42%

Blooming 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Real Potosí (draw refunded)

66%

Blooming (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Potosí at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Blooming away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Potosí attack 1.67 + Blooming defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.05

Blooming attack 1.20 + Real Potosí defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Potosí scores more

51%

level

21%

Blooming scores more

27%

Real Potosí at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

24'

35'

46'

46'

F. Arismendi← Juninho

56'

E. Vaca← J. Ferrufino

58'

J. Juncos← V. Ortega

59'

D. Ferrufino

60'

J. Herrera

68'

D. Maldonado← L. Garnica

68'

J. Vaca← J. Herrera

75'

J. Sagredo

77'

R. Borda← A. Gallardo

79'

89'

90'

90'

Real

Blooming

13

Peñarriet

7

▼

Juninho

28

⚽

4

2

18

19

8

26

⚽2

▼

Herrera

9

Fernández

27

▼

Ferrufino

1

Cassas

21

Eguino

2

▼

5

24

11

8

20

29

▼

Ortega

25

Diaz

19

▼

Gallardo

Manager: M. Ferrufino

58'▲J. Juncos←▼V. Ortega

68'▲D. Maldonado←▼L. Garnica

77'▲R. Borda←▼A. Gallardo

Real Potosí substitutes

23Juncos10Maldonado7Borda12Salvatierra26Ávila4Hinojosa18Yecerotte

Manager: M. Ponce

46'▲F. Arismendi←▼Juninho

56'▲E. Vaca←▼J. Ferrufino

68'▲J. Vaca←▼J. Herrera

Blooming substitutes

16Arismendi20Vaca10Vaca29Orozco30Urapuca22Menacho1Uraezaña

Match Recap: Real Potosí vs Blooming

Blooming beat Real Potosí 3-1 in Primera División on January 26, 2020.

Goals: J. Herrera (7', 60'), R. Borda (79'), J. Pérez (89').

The match was played at Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte in Potosí.

Real Potosí vs Blooming — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Potosí vs Blooming