Blooming 1–0 Real Potosí: Result & Stats

Blooming

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Potosí

Rafinha 23'

12/11/2021

Primera División · Round 30Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Blooming72%

×Draw19%

Real Potosí9%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BloomingExpected goals in this matchReal Potosí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.57

Blooming

2.04

Real Potosí

0.57

Blooming creates 258% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

2.21

creates per match

0.40

0.75

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Blooming

2.21

Real Potosí

0.40

allows per match

Blooming

0.75

Real Potosí

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blooming+0.00on par

Real Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blooming ↓

Real Potosí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blooming or draw

91%

Blooming or Real Potosí

81%

Draw or Real Potosí

28%

Winning margin

Blooming wins by 2+

46%

Real Potosí wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Blooming 1+ goals

87%

Blooming 2+ goals

60%

Blooming 3+ goals

33%

Real Potosí 1+ goals

43%

Real Potosí 2+ goals

11%

Real Potosí 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Blooming (draw refunded)

89%

Real Potosí (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blooming at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Real Potosí away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blooming attack 2.21 + Real Potosí defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Real Potosí attack 0.40 + Blooming defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Blooming scores more

72%

level

19%

Real Potosí scores more

9%

Blooming at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Blooming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

27'

27'

28'

46'

N. Cisneros← M. Ortiz

71'

J. Peñarrieta← B. Uraezaña

74'

C. Menacho← J. Ferrufino

74'

C. Bekamenga← L. Trujillo

80'

J. Rojas← Rafinha

82'

J. Méndez← J. Candía

88'

J. Muñóz← N. Cisneros

90+5'

R. Eguino

90+6'

J. Herrera

Blooming

Real

1

21

18

7

3

▼

Trujillo

6

▼

Candía

26

Escalante

23

Lovera

25

▼

Ortiz

19

Gallardo

35

Ubah

1

▼

31

2

32

18

15

⚽

▼

26

20

21

34

16

▼

Ferrufino

Manager: R. Venegas

71'▲J. Peñarrieta←▼B. Uraezaña

74'▲C. Menacho←▼J. Ferrufino

80'▲J. Rojas←▼Rafinha

Blooming substitutes

13Peñarrieta22Menacho17Rojas14Farell4Rioja29Orozco27Pérez28Ribera10Vaca

Manager: S. Núñez

46'▲N. Cisneros←▼M. Ortiz

74'▲C. Bekamenga←▼L. Trujillo

82'▲J. Méndez←▼J. Candía

88'▲J. Muñóz←▼N. Cisneros

Real Potosí substitutes

41Cisneros9Bekamenga8Méndez29Muñóz37Pantigoso13Villa10Gutiérrez36Cano5Ferrufino